CarbonFireClimate
Carbon stock decline linked to dry-season fire extent
Analysis of 2019–2023 data reveals a statistically significant correlation between fire perimeter area and net carbon loss in the following year.
Using annual carbon stock snapshots and INPE fire scar data, this finding establishes a lagged relationship where fire extent in year N predicts a 4–9% carbon reduction in year N+1. The effect is strongest in the northern sector of the zone where canopy cover is thinner.
NDVIVegetationResilience
NDVI recovery post-2020 drought faster than modelled
Observed NDVI recovery after the 2020 drought event outpaced projections from the regional vegetation model by approximately 18 months.
Three years after the 2020 megadrought, NDVI values have returned to pre-drought levels across 87% of the zone. This resilience is likely attributable to the intact understory layer and relatively low hunting pressure maintaining seed disperser populations. The finding challenges assumptions in current carbon credit baseline methodologies.
BiodiversitySpecies Richness
Species richness hotspot identified at river confluence
Point survey data from 2022 field campaign identifies a concentrated biodiversity hotspot at the Tapajós–Arapiuns confluence.
The confluence area shows species richness values 2.3× the zone average, driven by the ecotone effect between flooded and terra firme forest. This area is not currently prioritised in the monitoring grid and should be considered for enhanced sampling in future campaigns.